Sunday, January 4, 2015

Looking ahead to 2015

Time to position for the year ahead.  2014 was marketed by ever higher highs in the stock market, continuation of crisis-time monetary stimulus, and geopolitical tensions--particularly of the Russian variety.  Six and a half years after Lehman's collapse, pundits, bloggers, and academics are still arguing about whether or not we are in a correction (or the right kind of correction).

In 2014 I moved a material portion of my stock portfolio into cash and gold ETFs.  Even after missing out on gains, and suffering meaningful losses on the gold, I'm comfortable with my cash position and look to increase it opportunistically.

Even if it's not in 2015, I have a grave sense--of the Tolkienesque variety--that a severe correction is coming that will shock and awe market participants of all ages  By the mysterious processes of the market, the sins of cheap money and price manipulation, or the fundamental problems that they intend to mask, will be fully discounted; perhaps quite suddenly.

On potential indicators of fundamental problems that are 'poking out', I note that the collapse in oil prices towards the end of 2014 has a demand component in addition to the much discussed supply side (Saudis, shale, tar sands).

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